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Joined: 26 May 08
quote originally posted by Samuel Lee:
|Bro, how come Arsenal set at such a good odds? |
It makes me think of recent Huesca VS Barcelona match.
I will comment on Watford's last match 4-1 against Fulham. Their 3-goal margin victory was mainly due to luck. Coz both their shot-based and non-shot expected goals were less than 2. The result should have been 2-2 draw, but Watford got lucky.
"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals (xG) they should have produced. The number of xG in excess of the actual number of GoalsFor (GF) and GoalsAgainst (GA) constitutes the margin of safety (MOS) that is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a decline in their performance in the upcoming fixture (UF). The soccer bettor does not expect the UF to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the MOS demanded might be small. The function of MOS is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the UF. If the MOS is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's performance in the UF will not fall far below their xG in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The MOS is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a MOS in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the MOS guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible.